Spring Training

Guys get ready cuz it's just 4 days away from Spring Training 2007! It's is exciting i know...pitchers and catchers have already reported, and it looks like it should be a very entertaining year! We've got Barry squared in San Francisco, D-Money in Boston, Sammy Sosa trying to make a come back, and who knows where the hell Manny Ramirez is?!

And just so you can get an idea of what to expect from the Rundown this season: Zac and Trevor will probably cover a fantasy baseball aspect along with commentary on every misspoken word of every baseball analyst throughout the year. I will mainly be responsible for making fun of them, and talking about other important issues during the year.

Check out our blog often because we will have much more to talk about during the regular and post season as opposed to these last couple of months of hot stove talk. We will have a few posts during the week so check us out every couple of days to stay current on baseball and impress your friends with how clever and funny you are.

I'll go ahead and give my pre-season prediction for the World Series...Mets vs. the Red Sox. Mets Win the World Series.
But I will be rooting for my Cardinals to repeat and for my Mariners to do something...anything really!!
Peace Love and Gap

Bill Conlin; Baseball Expert

We have more bad sportswriting to report, kids. Our newest addition to the family is Bill Conlin from the Philadelphia Daily News. Presumably, this guy will write about the Phillies; you can check out this story by following this link----> http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/16271426.htm The title of this article is, "Phils seem finished making major additions" The key team mentioned is the Phillies of course. Let's crack this open! MAJOR LEAGUE baseball's general managers have pretty much shut the doors on the armored trucks, secured the bank vaults and headed home for the holidays. Good opening, its appropriate and even gives good imagery. So what about the Phillies? The scene they left behind looks like a Klondike saloon after the Gold Rush prospectors came in after the spring thaw. There hasn't been such a wild orgy of undisciplined spending since the Xbox went on sale. Ummmm, what? I mean he is right, the spending in baseball has been absurd this offseason, but this is the biggest mish mash of metaphors and comparisons I have ever seen! The X-Box? Maybe this guy has heard of the Playstation 3 that just came out? His references aren't even current! Just tell us about the Phillies! After turning Orlando into Sitka during the winter meetings, the hung-over GMs dragged their depleted checkbooks back home. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, who must be auditioning for "Deal or No Deal,'' gave Mr. Softee, J.D. Drew, $70 million for 5 years and a priority reservation for the Fenway Park whirlpool. Hung over? Deal or No Deal? Mr. Softee? And what the heck is Sitka? I think this guy is trying to do a Bill Simmons impersonation and he is failing miserably. Isn't this article about the additions the PHILLIES are making? The reference to Philadelphia sports must be coming soon. Then the boyish Yale grad got a nod and a wink from cyber-consultant Bill James... Sounds gay. ...and added a 6-year, $52 million contract to the $51.1 million they already had lavished on the Japan League Seibu Lions just for the right to negotiate for the rights to righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka. Yes, that is crazy spending...but those are the Red Sox....your team is the Philadelphia Phillies, Bill. Maybe you should mention them as well? We are about six long and convoluted sentences into this 41 sentence article and we still don't have a Phillies reference. I am beginning to lose hope. Bill continues to rant about the Red Sox pick ups for a little while longer, then he moves on. The spending was particularly surreal in Chicago. Tribune Company, which owns a bunch of distressed newspapers and the Chicago Cubs, said screw you to the editorial employees about to be jettisoned. Way to protect your own, Bill. To hell with the Tribune Company! They are firing my "journalist" peers! WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH THE PHILLIES??? They spent an obscene amount of money in long-term commitments to Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and a variety of average pitchers they hope will change luck that has been bad since Tinker to Evers to Chance. Does anyone know what the heck he is talking about? Anyone? Please My devout hope is that the blood money taken from the hands of hundreds of soon-to-be laid-off Tribune Company employees will not spend well.

Your Baseball Education for the Day!

Professor speaking. As we go forward here, I thought it would be helpful to provide a sort of useful guide for the baseball terms that we throw around here so frequently. Hopefully this will allow all of us to speak the same statistical language and avoid confusion. I would put this in some kind of order....but I don't know the alphabet. Without further ado, here is your glossary!!! Batting Average (BA) -- This one is pretty simple and most people are familiar with it. It is calculated by taking a player's hit total and dividing by the number of at-bats the player had. A .300 average is considered good, but the best hitters can far exceed that total, and a .250 average is considered bad, and many hitters can dip below that total. I don't believe batting average is a great measure of the worth of a hitter, and neither do you if you think about. You have always thought this way, even if you have never expressed it. Player A: BA- .255 45 HRs 30 2Bs 100 RBIs 95 Walks Player B: BA- .320 7 HRs 25 2Bs 65 RBIs 30 Walks Which player would you rather have? Tim McCarver might say Player B if that guy is small and "plays the game the right way," which is why Timmy should be a fastfood drive-through guy instead of the lead color analyst of baseball on Fox every Saturday. I think I would take Player A, everytime. So can we all agree that batting average is not the best metric to value hitters and in fact is one of the worst? Wouldn't you rather look at other stats that more accurately guage a hitter's effectiveness? What? You want me to move on? Fine. On-Base Percentage or Average (OBP, OBA)-- If you haven't read Moneyball, an excellent book by Michael Lewis about the success of the Oakland A's despite having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, you should read it immediately. It breaks down the value of OBP very effectively. OBP is the difference between Kevin Youkilis and Jeff Franceour. If you are a hitter, your primary responsibility and goal is TO NOT MAKE OUTS. OBP is the stat that measures how effectively a hitter avoids making outs. It is calculated by taking the amount of times a player reaches base without recording any outs divided by player's number of plate appearances. (Plate appearances are at-bats + walks + sacrifices in this case) Your 2006 leader in OBP was Mr. Barry Bonds with an impressive mark of .454. Basically, when Barry got to the plate he did not record an out about 45% of the time. That is very good. Slugging Percentage (SLG) This stat tries to express a hitter's ability to hit for power. This takes a player's total bases and divides by his amount of at bats. This puts extra value on extra base hits and especially home runs. Your 2006 leader in slugging percentage was Albert Pujols with a mark of .671. Albert Pujols is a stud. BA / OBP / SLG -- This is a fairly common way of displaying the three previous stats, when you see a split like this, you a probably looking at a hitter's batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage) -- Just what it sounds like, this stat combines a player's OBP and slugging percentage. Stat geeks will tell you that OPS is not a good stat because it equalizes OBP and SLG even though OBP is more important. (Did you know BIll James, a leading baseball stat man, thinks OBP is about 4 times more important than SLG?) I will use it because OPS has gotten a foothold in popular baseball terminology so it is more accepted than some crazy stuff I am gonna shoot your way later in this post. Albert Pujols was your 2006 OPS champion with a mark of 1.102. For his efforts, Albert was not selected as the 2006 MVP. VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) -- This is a bit different from the other stats because it is a counting statistic and not a percentage. VORP is an offensive only stat, and it attempts to calculate the number of runs a player is contributing above what a replacement-level player at the same position would if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. Basically, if you were injured or incapacitated or shot to the moon, how many runs would your team lose if they put a fringe major leaguer or AAA quality player in your place the whole season? That's VORP, baby. Your 2006 VORP leader was.....Albert Pujols, with a VORP of 85.4! Albert was worth 85 more runs than the replacement level player. By the way, every 10 additional runs is roughly equal to one win, so Albert accounted for nearly 9 extra wins over the course of the year. He still has not received the 2006 MVP award yet. And yes, I am bitter. David Eckstein -- He is a semi-average SS for the St. Louis Cardinals; the only person in baseball who is definitely NOT using human growth hormone. He is approximately 4 and a half feet tall and has to lie down in the dugout between innings to keep from passing out. He performs windmills to warm up before games, I am always worried that he will either take off or sever his arms completely. He also runs hard to first base on every play, like almost every other major league baseball player. Commentators will take this display of hustle, grit and heart and use it to somehow conclude David has a sort of baseball skill that is totally beyond his tangible assets. He is the midget and illegitmate albino twin of Derek Jeter.

The Numbers are in....Kinda

Early reports suggest that the D-Money deal will be for six years and 52 million with some incentives that would put the deal at a possible value of around $60 million. These incentives would almost certainly be innings-pitched related, and if so, our boy D-Money should have no problem reaching those goals. Take a look at this......http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/news/story?id=2696021 I don't want to brag or anything...but your resident numbers cruncher, the Professor, was closer than all of these tools, some of whom didn't even pick the signing to happen at all (I'm looking in your direction, Steve Phillips!) Proof positive your trust in TBR (The Baseball Rundown) is well-placed. Peace out! These numbers are from SI's John Heyman, and therefore are in question...so let's not get our hopes up!

The Boston Yankees new ACE

Apparently, Daisuke Matsuzaka has boarded a plane with top Red Sox officials returning to Boston. We can only assume this means there has been some sort of a preliminary agreement between the team and the Japanese pitcher....my best guess is six years and between $55-$60 million dollars. Not bad for a guy WHO HAS YET TO THROW A SINGLE MLB PITCH. If my guesses are anywhere near reality, this would bring Matasuzaka's contract value to around $100 million over six years, including the posting fee. Because of this, I believe this kid deserves the nickname of D-Money, and so I will be referring to him in that way from now on. This is exceptionally ridiculous, I just cannot believe the orgy of spending that has taken place this year. I was never a big fan of the salary cap in baseball, but if this trend continues it may become a necessity. Smaller market teams have had success recently, and their has been a different World Series Champion every year since 2000, but I am not sure that will be possible if contracts continue to escalate they way they have this offseason. Essentially the teams on the coasts will begin to squeeze players from the mid-market teams in the center of the country, and teams like Minnesota, Cincinnatti, Pittsburgh, and yes, even St. Louis, will start to have an unfair burden placed on them as they try to compete in a market gone mad. This entire posting system really highlighted these needs for fiscal restraints...I mean, D-Money was only really available to a handful of teams who had the cash flow possiblilities to make a $30 million plus bid. IT NEEDS TO STOP!! I guess its too much to ask for Bud Selig to move ahead of the curve.

The Real Sweet Lou?

I thought it would be interesting to make my first post at the Rundown really hit home for some...specifically our own Sweet Lou. But first i would like to introduce myself as the brother to the one and only Professor. Technically I am younger, and therefore Sweet Lou and the Professor believe they are the know it alls. But I would like to mention that I am the only one of the trio that actually PLAYS baseball. In fact, I am by far the most athletic of the group. I shouldn't be so hard on the Professor because back in the day he was a solid pitcher, but as for Sweet Lou he literally cannot swing a bat without hurting his shoulder. It's embarassing to be honest, but i do feel bad. So basically the Professor is the stat man (hence the name) and I can lend my small expertise due to actual experience. I believe Sweet Lou was added simply for his moisturated skin. Moving right along because I'm not one to judge other's grooming habits.

So now I'll actually get to the point of this post which would be to explain the huge mistake that the Cubs have made in their offseason signings! And wouldn't you know it, this has absolutly nothing to do with my boy Soriano. Instead, I'm going to jump back to October when the Great Lou Piniella was hired as the Cubs head coach. The question is...Do the Cubs enjoy losing...do they even try anymore? I know this hurts our own Sweet Lou because he actually named himself after the great coach himself. (Atleast i assume) So anyway let me explain in a quite orderly fashion why this is a perhaps the most destructive signing I've ever seen.

1) Larry Rothschild, who has spent the last five years as the Cubs' pitching coach, will return to the same role on Piniellas' staff. This is the same guy whose staff lead the league in walks and have an amazing ability to break mid-season? Simply put, Mr. Lou Piniella wants him, he has been put in charge for some reason. Rothschild has offically been signed to a 2 year contract to be Piniellas' pitching coach. So i guess no one should expect anything from Cubs pitching this year...I hope Soriano and Lee combine for around 150 homers or the Cubs are looking at another sub par season.

2) Let me stick with Lou's uncanny ability to hire coaches who are master failures. You will literally never guess who he picked as his bench coach. Drum Roll Please....Alan Trammell, if he doesn't rind any bells let my introduce him. This is the the manager of the 119 loss 2003 Detroit Tigers. Amazingly enough the Tigers team of 2003 doesn't look so different from the AL champions of 2006. What was the major difference besides some added pitching? It would have to be Trammell's ablility come up with a myriad of ways to lose!

3) Not only does he fail to create a solid staff, but he also comes of very short while coaching. He abuses pitchers, he doesn’t develop young players, he plays veterans to a fault. The only difference between him and Dusty is Lou pisses off his players and Dusty desperatly needs to be liked by his players. Besides pissing off the players, his tirades will quickly upset the umpires as he always does. If you think that Cubs got bad breaks before, just wait until Piniella ticks off the umpires.

I conclusion, I just wonder if the Cubs front office trys. Wait, I think they do try but only to run their organization further into the ground. Really, I nor anyone else should be so hard on the Cubs. Its gotta suck to have so much pressure on you to win especially when their is 0 chance that will happen. Instead, we should focus on Chicago's strengths like making pizza and Piniella's forte's such as throwing bases into the outfield.
I'm not saying...I'm just saying

The Boston Yankees

I have heard alot of complaining from Boston fans about the Yankees; Red Sox fans continue to define their fanship in relationship to New York despite everything that popular New England area columnists and commentators have said in the mass of books, print, and other media following the 2004 Red Sox title. One of the biggest complaints has revolved around the Yankee's habit of wildly spending money on free agents, gorging their rosters with overpaid superstars to ensure the constant status of contender for a World Series title. Freud would say a part of your unconcious mind actually desires to become like the entity that you say you despise.

Congratulations, Boston. You have become what you hate. The Boston Yankees have put on a clinic on how to corner a free agency market, just like their New York counterparts. Boston has spent $170 million on long term free agency contracts so far this offseason, and that doesn't even factor in probably another 50 million for the actual contract to Mata-whoever from Japan. So be on notice, Boston fans....we will not tolerate the inevitable complaining that will take place when New York gets the upper hand on you.....again. This serves as a warning to all of you, Boston Yankees fans, you have become a version of your most hated nemesis. Actually, you are far worse than the Yankees because you aren't even good at throwing your money around. Your GM Epstein is trying to overcompensate for his mistakes to sign Damon and not find adequate offensive replacements in the offseason. They missed the postseason last year and now feel they must flex their obviously large financial muscles. You can do this all you want, guys, but it will not work out in the long run. You luxury tax hit will get more and more significant and that money will combine with the Yankees money and get dispersed to all the other MLB clubs. Essentially, you will be paying your rivals enough money to field players competing against you. The Yankees are demonstrating that this system is not sustainable and are trying to reverse their drunken spending habits.

So do not complain. Don't whine and moan. I don't want to hear one word about Steinbrenner and his evil wallet from hell. I don't want to hear about how Yankee Stadium is a corporate symbol. And for the love of God, don't claim the Yankees are beating you because of cash like you did last year, Theo. Man up and play the games. I suspect you won't do this, and we will be here to document your stupidity and hypocrisy.

You have been warned.

Phil Rogers; Classical Economist

Phil Rogers is a genius everyone! He has single-handedly solved the mysteries of the free agency system. Check it out ---> http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2679907 Let's break this down!

The gnashing of teeth had barely stopped over Adam Eaton's new contract and the Yankees committing $26 million for the rights to another bottom-of-the-rotation starter, Japanese left-hander Kei Igawa.

What a great opening line, Phil! This isn't awkward at all. Certainly Adam Eaton's contract is interestingly high, but how can you make a judgment about Igawa at this point? He had a great Japanese career, something that is becoming more and more valid as evidence for Major League talent as the league increases its talent. He consistenly posts high K's/9 IP ratios, one of the best indicators of success at higher professional levels. Ease up a bit on the harsh judgments here, Phillip.

Here comes another round of major league executives screaming that timeless question, "Are those guys on crack?"

What a coincidence! That's the same question I ask when I start reading columns by you and other writers of your caliber! I don't want to get off task here, but hasn't this article been written before? Haven't Peter Gammons and Buster Olney already commented on the free agent market being out of control? Shouldn't Phil, a columnist getting paid to write, find something more original to comment on? What? Oh, Phil wasn't done...let's move on.

But there's a reason so many marginal pitchers are commanding such respect. It's simple supply and demand.

What? Holy hell, that's it! Phil Rogers has finally figured out this crazy free agency thing! It's supply and demand! Stop the presses and let's give the Nobel in original thinking to Phil Rogers! In all serious, are you effing kidding me? This guy is paid money to write columns and he tells us the reason why contracts are high is because of supply and demand? God, I hope his theory on the link between daytime and the presence of the Sun comes out soon. Thank you, Phil for filling the gaps for us; teams are flush with cash from all the revunue sharing and there is a relatively weak free agent market this year. Lots of cash plus nowhere to spend it equals Jeff Suppan getting a $40 million deal over 4 years. I appreciate the tip.

Phil continues on in the article talking about six teams and their problems with free agency. The title of the article is, "Hurry up before its too late." It seems, Phil, that this is bad advice for the teams on your list, since none of them are major market teams that can afford to go crazy with spending Soriano money. (Except for the Giants, who have their own unique problems) It would be better advice to let other teams blow their money and funds on overpaid "superstars" like Soriano and then swoop in and sign good players for reasonable contracts after the dust settles. This type of level-headed advice is beyond you, isn't it, Phil?

There is more but I needed to stop before my headache got worse. This is what we fight against!! End bad sportswriting today!!!

Professor out.

Nice Shot, Nomar!

We at the Rundown are proud to announce that our favorite athlete couple of Nomar Garciaparra and Mia Hamm are expecting twins! No word yet on the gender or fantasy baseball projections of the little tikes in 2028, but we will get those to you soon. As you can see from the picture on the right, this joyous event was in doubt for some time, but I guess its obvious Nomar's nads are fully functional once again. I am personally a huge fan of Nomar and I believe I speak for Sweet Lou when I offer a big, "Thank you" to Nomar for giving us quite possibly the greatest fantasy baseball name of all time. I'm sure you remember that Nomar suffered a horriffic ruptured groin injury that year, the aftermath is shown here. That injury and his loss for the entire season effectively cost us a league title that year, but we are far from bitter. This injury took away a title but it gave us so much more: the fantasy team name of NoSexForMia, the greatest name of them all. I guess the name is no longer relevant. Oh well. I know I am proud to have drafted him in the third round.....here's a toast to Nomar and Mia, may your days be filled with joy!

Schmidt to the Cubs?

Sports Illustrated is reporting that Jason Schmidt has been offered a three year deal to the right hander valued at $45 million. The Cubs are apparently very serious about contending now, as they have spent nearly $240 million dollars on long term contracts to free agents this year. Schmidt would be a great addition for the Cubs as he would bolster their rotation and give them a solid #2 to their ace Carlos Zambrano. If Mark Prior would somehow recover from his constant arm problems, the Cubs would be the early favorites in the NL Central, and probably also serious contenders for the NL pennant as well. The three year deal is probably not enough to land Schmidt on a team other than the Mariners, still considered the favorites to acquire the former Giants ace. I am still not completely sold on the Cubs, even if they were to land Schmidt, but this certainly would be a big signing for them and one that would generate more wins for them next year than the Soriano deal. This of course is all up for debate since the information comes from SI's John Donovan, and he is routinely incorrect about such things.

Six Years, $100 Million

There has been a lot of talk in the major sports outlets about what a bad signing this was, but I disagree. This is exactly the kind of player the Astros needed in their terrible lineup, and I am never against a team identifying a need they have and working to fill it. The Astros needed a corner outfield bat with power to take advantage of the Little League distance short porch in left field and they acquired the best hitter on the market with those qualifications without completely breaking the bank. I don't see how anyone can slam this signing; the Astros lineup will be siginificantly better with Lee next year than it was this year. Remember, the Astros were very close to catching the Cardinals during the last week of the season, if the Astros can address the holes in their rotation they will be a trendy pick to win the NL Central next year. I just wish all of the big name guys would stop signing with the Cardinals' main rivals in the Central. Go to the West Coast or something, why would anyone want to sign with the Cubs or Astros??

What I find most interesting about this deal was the fact that the Giants also offered Lee a six year deal rumored to be worth even more than the Astros $100 million offer. This is significant because the Giants would have had no use for Mr. Barry Bonds if Lee had accepted the offer. There are many questions that are raised when we try to understand the motives behind the Giants bold offer to Lee. Are the Giants getting used to the idea of life without Barry? Are there any teams on the free agent market that are willing to take the months of steroid talk that shadows Barry in exchange for the publicity of a home run record chase and a still potent bat? Will there be collusion among owners to not sign Barry, effectively locking him out of a record chase? I feel that someone should answer these questions for me. I don't think it would be wise for either side to cut ties; for better or for worse Barry Bonds is identified with the Giants and they with him. This debate will only get more intense as Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy is debated and examined.

It's a huge can of worms and it might be opened very soon.

Alfonso Soriano and the Case of Missing Baserunners

The Hot Stove is burning and the Rundown has all of the coverage you could possibly want. This market is spiraling out of control, and I am not entirely sure that all of this wild spending is in baseball's best interests. Juan Pierre is now a 9 million a year player. I think that says enough, but if you want an excellent breakdown of that tragic story read Sweet Lou's post below.

One of the most unbelievable free agent signings that has been made in baseball history was completed just a few days ago, and I am sure no one is surprised the Cubs were right in the middle of it. The Cubs have seemingly dedicated themselves to mediocrity since their devastating loss to the Marlins in the 2003 NLCS; they were fortunate that Derek Lee made the leap to legitimate superstar status in 2005, otherwise their offensive numbers would have been historically terrible. Why is this the case? The Cubbies at their best hit a lot of home runs but stay among the ranks of the mediocre when it comes to total runs scored. This is because NO ONE IS ONE BASE WHEN HOME RUNS ARE HIT!!! The Cubs are one of the teams in baseball which seem to reject the idea that people on the basepaths will help score runs, despite years of research and statistical evidence to prove this simple fact. One of the most important things a hitter can do at the plate is to NOT record an out; there are only 27 outs in a game and teams will score more runs as they become better collectively at not making outs. The Cubs have been terrible at this recently. Look at this lineup of players that have hit near the top of their lineup:

Neifi Perez .298 Career OBP
Juan Pierre .330 OBP leading off in 2006 (.326 in 2005)
Cesar Izturis .298 OBP in 2006

The Cubs as a team posted a horrific OBP of .319, to put it simply, Cubs hitters are excellent at making outs, and this does not help you score runs. Since this is baseball, the lack of run production is a bad thing if you want to win.

Well, Jim Hendry is mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore!! So he went out and got the premier free agent on the market this offseason--Alfonso Soriano! And all it cost him was $136 million over 8 years. For those of you keeping score, that is the fifth most lucrative contract in baseball history, based on annual income. Does anyone out there think Alfonso Soriano is the among the best five players in the game? The National League? The NL Central?? Let's break down Mr. Soriano and his potential impact.

Here are his career stats, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.
.325 OBP
.510 SLG
.835 OPS
.278 EQA

What does this mean? It means that Soriano is incredibly average! To put it favorably, Soriano is a good player, a valuable player.....but a player of the 9-12 million dollar a year range at best. For comparison, that's Juan Pierre money. Just kidding, Sweet Lou. Now some of you will look to his past season and think you are getting a great player....let's play that game for a second.

Soriano's 2006 stats
.351 OBP
.560 SLG
.911 OPS
.300 EQA

This confirms the point I am trying to make....the Cubs are getting a good player, a talented player, a player that should add wins to their season total next year, but they just paid him $136 million over 8 years!!! That's Sweet Lou money!! The Cubs will be paying this guy 17 million a year until he turns 39. THIRTY-NINE!!!! This has the potential to cripple the Cubs for half a decade, and you heard it here first. Remember the Cubs biggest offensive problem of making far too many outs? Soriano, over his career, has been exceptionally AVERAGE at not making outs, and his career year last year will not reflect his production for the Cubs for the next three seasons, much less the next eight. The Cubs have added a maximum of 8 wins to their season total for 2007 in Soriano and they have still failed to address their shattered pitching rotation.

This was a terrible signing in the long run, but if the Cubs can somehow turn this into a World Series title it will be worth it. The chances of that are slim at best as things stand right now, but in the weak NL....who knows?

Cubs 2007 record---79-83

Oh well...

It has just been announced that Ryan Howard is the 2006 NL MVP. This is quite disappointing to me considering that I am a huge Cardinals fan and that I just wrote a huge post explaining to these voters than Pujols was the more obvious choice. I guess they didn't check the Rundown before finalizing their decision. Oh well. Pujols does have one MVP and now has a World Series ring so he will be fine...it is just unfortunate baseball "experts" refuse to investigate what real baseball value is. We will continue to fight the good fight here at the Rundown and battle against stupidity in baseball writing!

NL MVP Pick!!

The winner of the 2006 National League Most Valuable Player Award will be announced later today, in less than an hour, in fact. The early returns suggest the race is very close and coming down to the wire. This should be no surprise to anyone who watched baseball at all this year. When the discussion about the National League's MVP is started, the list is not very long. Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols have seperated themselves from the rest of the pack, which is amazing considering the amount of quality seasons that were had in the NL. There has been alot of talk about the dominance of the AL over the NL, but the MVP races (and the World Series outcome) suggest the gap is not as wide as previously thought. Players like Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and others had tremendous seasons, but none of them will be close to the top in MVP voting. Soriano was a legitimate 40-40 player, without the stain of a steroid scandal like Jose Canseco, and he probably won't get a single first place vote for MVP!! When the list of MVP candidates is closely compared the NL field is revealed to be much stronger and deeper. Without further ado, let us dive into the debate over the most valuable player in the National League. Albert Pujols played for the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, and while postseason success has no bearing on the MVP voting, the fact that Pujols' Cardinals did make the postseason will factor in the vote positively for him; rightly or wrongly, the voters value a postseason berth in selecting an MVP. Since the Phillies and Cardinals had such similar records this year, I do not believe it is correct to use team success as a measure of value this year. Ryan Howard hit 58 home runs this year and and had 149 RBIs. His batting average/on base/slugging splits were very impressive, coming in at .313/.425/.659. for an OPS of 1.084. These stats are all insane!! His EQA, which measures offensive performance relative to the rest of the major leagues, was an astounding .340! For reference, an average EQA is around .260 and a good player will be above .300. In addition to all of this, Howard contributed directly to 8.6 Phillies wins this year, a figured totaled by his WARP. These numbers, again, are insane, and Howard certainly is worthy of all the credit he deserves as a fine player, especially in only his second season as an everyday player. Despite all of these great numbers, there is one player who can meet and top them all. Albert Pujols is simply the most dominant player in the Majors right now, and may very well go down in history as the most dominant player of this decade. Pujols had another year that just adds to growing legend as a wonderful hitter and overall player. The biggest thing against Pujols is that he trails Ryan Howard in the most obvious and highly quoted stats. Albert hit a career high 49 home runs and had 137 RBIs. These numbers are impressive but are surpassed by Howard's numbers in these categories. After that, it becomes all Albert. Pujols had splits this year of .331/.431/.671, for a ridiculous OPS of 1.102. The edge in these stats goes to Pujols by a bigger margin than you might think if you only watched ESPN. Albert also put up these stats while playing at the new Busch Stadium, a considerably more pitcher-friendly park than the Phillie's Citizen's Bank Ballpark. This difference is reflected in EQA and WARP, which take ball park effect into condsideration. Remember Howard's unholy EQA of .340? Albert Pujols had an even more disturbing EQA of .350!!! The difference in value becomes even more apparent when win shares are compared. Ryan Howard's WARP was 8.6 wins, meaning he contributed directly to that many wins for the Phillies. Albert Pujols had a WARP of 11.9! Pujols earned nearly 12 wins for the Cardinals over the course of the year, three more than Ryan Howard contributed to the Phillies. There's even more to it than pure hitting. A stat like WARP also takes defensive ability into account. By all accounts, Ryan Howard is a terrible first baseman, and Albert Pujols is one of the best in the game, winning his first Gold Glove earlier this year. Also, while neither one of these players would ever be called fast, Howard looks like his feet are stuck in lead, while Albert is one of the best baserunners in the game, especially among first basemen. Since these two candidates play the same position, it is easier to compare their production. Both players has marvelous years, but one really set himself apart. This might be one of the tightest races in years, but it shouldn't be. Albert Pujols proved his value to the Cardinals over the course of the year and the stats back up his status as the game's best overall player. He has the stats, the pedigree, and the overall ability in his favor. Your 2006 National League MVP should be......ALBERT PUJOLS. Hot Stove stuff to follow, as well as an introduction by our other contributors.

AL MVP Picks

The award season is in full swing and many debates have been settled. The NL Cy Young race had a number of quality candidates, including Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Trevor Hoffman, and Carlos Zambrano. Webb won the award, something that I did not appreciate since it will almost certainly mean he will go much earlier in next year's roto drafts. In any event, he was certainly deserving of the award. In the AL Cy race, there was no real debate and Johan Santana received his second Cy Young Award...both by unanimous vote. Pretty impressive.

That brings us to the league MVP voting. The AL winner will be announced first, and the field of quality players is very long. Derek Jeter is the leader in the clubhouse, followed by the likes of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and David Ortiz. Lost in all of this was Travis Hafner, a man who had a freakishly good year. Despite missing the last month of the season to a broken bone in his hand, he remained the leader in VORP and many other stats as well. The guy was putting up Pujols numbers with no recognition...he didn't even get selected for the All-Star game!! If the Indians were anywhere near the division lead, Hafner would have been the runaway winner. That wasn't the case, so Hafner is unfortunately out the the discussion, but he is my early pick for 2007 MVP.

The two Twins candidates were both very good this year, leading their team to the division title after a slow start. Both Morneau and Mauer had career years, but I'm afraid neither one have any chance to win this award because they will split the votes of the writers. Besides, their stats were compelling but not as good as the remaining candidates. Both Twinkies are gone.

That leaves Derek Jeter and David Ortiz, two rivals and combatants meet again in a battle for an individual award. The accomplishments of Big Papi have been well documented, from the walk off homers to the record breaking HR totals this year. Certainly Ortiz has a massive advantage in all the major power numbers, posting a .636 slugging percentage and an OPS of 1.049 while hitting a Red Sox franchise record 58 home runs. These numbers dwarf the .483/.900 split for Jeter with 14 home runs.

However, Derek Jeter's Yankees applied a major smack down to the Red Sox in the second half of 2006, including a humiliating five game sweep at Fenway. This alone almost put Ortiz out of the mix, but a frightening heart condition leading to missed playing time appeared to lock up the MVP for Jeter.

Jeter has won the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove for the shortstop position this year already, and it appears that 2006 is the opportunity to give the lifetime acheivement award to Jeter. Not so fast. Ortiz refused to be denied and came back with a vengeance at the end of the year. There is not doubt that Jeter's Yankees were better than the Red Sox, but that certainly was not David Ortiz's fault. David Ortiz posted a sick EQA of .328 this year to Jeter's .309. Derek Jeter had a higher amount of win shares.

This is a very close race that really will leave out a deserving player no matter who is chosen. The power stats are not their for Jeter, but he did play shortstop all year and ran the basepaths intelligently. David Ortiz put up ridiculous power numbers but still didn't receive as many win shares as Jeter did. He also missed time, although it was definetely not a matter of heart....no pun intended.

I am sure you are all dying to know my pick. Here it is. Since the race was so close, and one player was a DH and the other played one of the most physically demanding defensive positions in the time; the edge must be given to the everyday position player.

Your 2006 AL MVP is......Derek Jeter.

NL tomorrow!

My feelings on the Sport's Guy

ESPN.com's Page Two feature columnist is The Sport's Guy, Bill Simmons. He is one of, if not the biggest sport's columnists in America today and he represents the success that a writer can have when he views sports from a fan's perspective. He only writes about Boston sports, so that is a bit of a problem with me, I admit, but I am starting to have other problems with him as well. I think Bill Simmons was a good writer before his teams had success in their respective sports. The only sport he can adequately handle is basketball. Whenever he talks about football and baseball he makes a jerk of himself, especially baseball. Despite what he may think, his fanship of the Red Sox was always defined by failure and is compared to the Yankees. He hates the Yankees fans so much and now he has become them, as evidenced by his trashing of both the World Series Champion Cardinals and the National League in general. He is a jerk who knows very little about baseball other than the numbers of past Red Sox. What is also funny and interesting is how the Red Sox complain constantly about Yankees, yet they have always been Yankees-lite. Red Sox fans always bitch about the Yankees spending habits but have always done the same thing, except not as good. Boston has had a massive payroll for many years now, dwarfed only by the Yankees. Now that is being bridged because of the Red Sox giving up 51 million to just talk to a pitcher who has never thrown a MLB inning. So there, Simmons, you have become what you hate! That being said, he is extremely funny at times and makes me continue to read his columns. MVP predictions coming soon!

Stats mean something!!

Oh boy......this is what we have been waiting for. Apparently bad sports writing never has an offseason. Follow this link to see some insanity: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2654092

Now not every word in this article is nonsense, but there are some things that really bothered yours truly, and since this is a forum to complain....here we go.

There's only one problem with the gaudy numbers that Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Lee traditionally put up: They are guaranteed to lead to big contracts but do not necessarily translate into victories.

This is going to be the drumbeat that I will continue to sound until such idiot thinking is banished from baseball forever. We should call this the A-ROD DOCTRINE: There is no such thing as a gaudy stat line that is worthless to a baseball team. The very idea is absurd. But maybe I am reacting too harshly. Let's see what Phil has to say for himself.

Along with Alfonso Soriano, these are the biggest bats on the market, and it figures someone will pay them accordingly (Lee appears headed to the Houston Astros; Ramirez possibly to the Los Angeles Angels). But for all their thunder, Lee and Ramirez have combined for only 55 at-bats in the playoffs (and a .218 average), generally playing on also-ran teams.

What does a player's amount of postseason at-bats have anything to do with how valuable they are? Carlos Delgado did not have a single postseason AB until this postseason...was he a crappy player until this October? This makes zero sense, Phillip. Continue.

Their teams were a combined 147-176 last year. Lee did not deliver when he was traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Texas Rangers at the July deadline, and Ramirez disappeared when the Chicago Cubs needed him to step up while Derrek Lee was sidelined.

Again, a team's record is never a reflection on a single player. In fact, by looking at the win shares for both Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez, we see these fine players contributed to their teams victory totals. Their teams were BETTER OFF FOR HAVING THEM, PHIL!!! Are they absolute iron clad superstars? No. But they are both fine players who will use their stats to help their team win. What a concept.

One scout says the saying about lies, damn lies and statistics applies to free agency. "You can take any stat, I believe, and damn near make any point you choose with it," he said.

That is so true, both Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez's OPS and VORP contributed to the Republican loss in the Congress this week. Maybe people use stats because it is a helpful and OBJECTIVE way to evaluate a player's contribution to winning. Anyone?

The Season Roundup

Alright class, the Professor is in and it is time to start breaking down the simmering Hot Stove and all of the awards given out at the end of the year. The World Champion St. Louis Cardinals have many issues confronting them as they look forward to defending their title in 2007; the rest of the league is no different. We here at the Rundown are going to introduce ourselves and then begin giving our opinions on free agents, end of the year awards, and so much more. Stay tuned.

This should be interesting

I would like to welcome all of you to a baseball blog that is the result of a few guys watching and reading analysis and deciding that we also have something to add to the discussion. Baseball is the American game; we can be united and divided by baseball as easily as politics, religion, or a wide variety of other issues. Why is this?

It's because baseball matters.

Baseball is a way of judging history and comparing eras; it is a way to monitor the progress of our culture, our values, and even our morality. Baseball gives us heroes and legends, players who become so larger than life that grown men will pay large sums to money to watch them perform their craft.

We will discuss baseball transaction over this hot stove season, we will track free agents and their potential impact on their new team, and we will make fun of columnists and TV personalities that we disagree with. We will fight and bicker and argue with each other until we are blue in the face, and I am sure there will be some seriously ridiculous things said by all of us.

The Baseball Rundown experiment starts......now.