Alfonso Soriano and the Case of Missing Baserunners

The Hot Stove is burning and the Rundown has all of the coverage you could possibly want. This market is spiraling out of control, and I am not entirely sure that all of this wild spending is in baseball's best interests. Juan Pierre is now a 9 million a year player. I think that says enough, but if you want an excellent breakdown of that tragic story read Sweet Lou's post below.

One of the most unbelievable free agent signings that has been made in baseball history was completed just a few days ago, and I am sure no one is surprised the Cubs were right in the middle of it. The Cubs have seemingly dedicated themselves to mediocrity since their devastating loss to the Marlins in the 2003 NLCS; they were fortunate that Derek Lee made the leap to legitimate superstar status in 2005, otherwise their offensive numbers would have been historically terrible. Why is this the case? The Cubbies at their best hit a lot of home runs but stay among the ranks of the mediocre when it comes to total runs scored. This is because NO ONE IS ONE BASE WHEN HOME RUNS ARE HIT!!! The Cubs are one of the teams in baseball which seem to reject the idea that people on the basepaths will help score runs, despite years of research and statistical evidence to prove this simple fact. One of the most important things a hitter can do at the plate is to NOT record an out; there are only 27 outs in a game and teams will score more runs as they become better collectively at not making outs. The Cubs have been terrible at this recently. Look at this lineup of players that have hit near the top of their lineup:

Neifi Perez .298 Career OBP
Juan Pierre .330 OBP leading off in 2006 (.326 in 2005)
Cesar Izturis .298 OBP in 2006

The Cubs as a team posted a horrific OBP of .319, to put it simply, Cubs hitters are excellent at making outs, and this does not help you score runs. Since this is baseball, the lack of run production is a bad thing if you want to win.

Well, Jim Hendry is mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore!! So he went out and got the premier free agent on the market this offseason--Alfonso Soriano! And all it cost him was $136 million over 8 years. For those of you keeping score, that is the fifth most lucrative contract in baseball history, based on annual income. Does anyone out there think Alfonso Soriano is the among the best five players in the game? The National League? The NL Central?? Let's break down Mr. Soriano and his potential impact.

Here are his career stats, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.
.325 OBP
.510 SLG
.835 OPS
.278 EQA

What does this mean? It means that Soriano is incredibly average! To put it favorably, Soriano is a good player, a valuable player.....but a player of the 9-12 million dollar a year range at best. For comparison, that's Juan Pierre money. Just kidding, Sweet Lou. Now some of you will look to his past season and think you are getting a great player....let's play that game for a second.

Soriano's 2006 stats
.351 OBP
.560 SLG
.911 OPS
.300 EQA

This confirms the point I am trying to make....the Cubs are getting a good player, a talented player, a player that should add wins to their season total next year, but they just paid him $136 million over 8 years!!! That's Sweet Lou money!! The Cubs will be paying this guy 17 million a year until he turns 39. THIRTY-NINE!!!! This has the potential to cripple the Cubs for half a decade, and you heard it here first. Remember the Cubs biggest offensive problem of making far too many outs? Soriano, over his career, has been exceptionally AVERAGE at not making outs, and his career year last year will not reflect his production for the Cubs for the next three seasons, much less the next eight. The Cubs have added a maximum of 8 wins to their season total for 2007 in Soriano and they have still failed to address their shattered pitching rotation.

This was a terrible signing in the long run, but if the Cubs can somehow turn this into a World Series title it will be worth it. The chances of that are slim at best as things stand right now, but in the weak NL....who knows?

Cubs 2007 record---79-83