Phil Rogers; Classical Economist

Phil Rogers is a genius everyone! He has single-handedly solved the mysteries of the free agency system. Check it out ---> http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2679907 Let's break this down!

The gnashing of teeth had barely stopped over Adam Eaton's new contract and the Yankees committing $26 million for the rights to another bottom-of-the-rotation starter, Japanese left-hander Kei Igawa.

What a great opening line, Phil! This isn't awkward at all. Certainly Adam Eaton's contract is interestingly high, but how can you make a judgment about Igawa at this point? He had a great Japanese career, something that is becoming more and more valid as evidence for Major League talent as the league increases its talent. He consistenly posts high K's/9 IP ratios, one of the best indicators of success at higher professional levels. Ease up a bit on the harsh judgments here, Phillip.

Here comes another round of major league executives screaming that timeless question, "Are those guys on crack?"

What a coincidence! That's the same question I ask when I start reading columns by you and other writers of your caliber! I don't want to get off task here, but hasn't this article been written before? Haven't Peter Gammons and Buster Olney already commented on the free agent market being out of control? Shouldn't Phil, a columnist getting paid to write, find something more original to comment on? What? Oh, Phil wasn't done...let's move on.

But there's a reason so many marginal pitchers are commanding such respect. It's simple supply and demand.

What? Holy hell, that's it! Phil Rogers has finally figured out this crazy free agency thing! It's supply and demand! Stop the presses and let's give the Nobel in original thinking to Phil Rogers! In all serious, are you effing kidding me? This guy is paid money to write columns and he tells us the reason why contracts are high is because of supply and demand? God, I hope his theory on the link between daytime and the presence of the Sun comes out soon. Thank you, Phil for filling the gaps for us; teams are flush with cash from all the revunue sharing and there is a relatively weak free agent market this year. Lots of cash plus nowhere to spend it equals Jeff Suppan getting a $40 million deal over 4 years. I appreciate the tip.

Phil continues on in the article talking about six teams and their problems with free agency. The title of the article is, "Hurry up before its too late." It seems, Phil, that this is bad advice for the teams on your list, since none of them are major market teams that can afford to go crazy with spending Soriano money. (Except for the Giants, who have their own unique problems) It would be better advice to let other teams blow their money and funds on overpaid "superstars" like Soriano and then swoop in and sign good players for reasonable contracts after the dust settles. This type of level-headed advice is beyond you, isn't it, Phil?

There is more but I needed to stop before my headache got worse. This is what we fight against!! End bad sportswriting today!!!

Professor out.

Nice Shot, Nomar!

We at the Rundown are proud to announce that our favorite athlete couple of Nomar Garciaparra and Mia Hamm are expecting twins! No word yet on the gender or fantasy baseball projections of the little tikes in 2028, but we will get those to you soon. As you can see from the picture on the right, this joyous event was in doubt for some time, but I guess its obvious Nomar's nads are fully functional once again. I am personally a huge fan of Nomar and I believe I speak for Sweet Lou when I offer a big, "Thank you" to Nomar for giving us quite possibly the greatest fantasy baseball name of all time. I'm sure you remember that Nomar suffered a horriffic ruptured groin injury that year, the aftermath is shown here. That injury and his loss for the entire season effectively cost us a league title that year, but we are far from bitter. This injury took away a title but it gave us so much more: the fantasy team name of NoSexForMia, the greatest name of them all. I guess the name is no longer relevant. Oh well. I know I am proud to have drafted him in the third round.....here's a toast to Nomar and Mia, may your days be filled with joy!

Schmidt to the Cubs?

Sports Illustrated is reporting that Jason Schmidt has been offered a three year deal to the right hander valued at $45 million. The Cubs are apparently very serious about contending now, as they have spent nearly $240 million dollars on long term contracts to free agents this year. Schmidt would be a great addition for the Cubs as he would bolster their rotation and give them a solid #2 to their ace Carlos Zambrano. If Mark Prior would somehow recover from his constant arm problems, the Cubs would be the early favorites in the NL Central, and probably also serious contenders for the NL pennant as well. The three year deal is probably not enough to land Schmidt on a team other than the Mariners, still considered the favorites to acquire the former Giants ace. I am still not completely sold on the Cubs, even if they were to land Schmidt, but this certainly would be a big signing for them and one that would generate more wins for them next year than the Soriano deal. This of course is all up for debate since the information comes from SI's John Donovan, and he is routinely incorrect about such things.

Six Years, $100 Million

There has been a lot of talk in the major sports outlets about what a bad signing this was, but I disagree. This is exactly the kind of player the Astros needed in their terrible lineup, and I am never against a team identifying a need they have and working to fill it. The Astros needed a corner outfield bat with power to take advantage of the Little League distance short porch in left field and they acquired the best hitter on the market with those qualifications without completely breaking the bank. I don't see how anyone can slam this signing; the Astros lineup will be siginificantly better with Lee next year than it was this year. Remember, the Astros were very close to catching the Cardinals during the last week of the season, if the Astros can address the holes in their rotation they will be a trendy pick to win the NL Central next year. I just wish all of the big name guys would stop signing with the Cardinals' main rivals in the Central. Go to the West Coast or something, why would anyone want to sign with the Cubs or Astros??

What I find most interesting about this deal was the fact that the Giants also offered Lee a six year deal rumored to be worth even more than the Astros $100 million offer. This is significant because the Giants would have had no use for Mr. Barry Bonds if Lee had accepted the offer. There are many questions that are raised when we try to understand the motives behind the Giants bold offer to Lee. Are the Giants getting used to the idea of life without Barry? Are there any teams on the free agent market that are willing to take the months of steroid talk that shadows Barry in exchange for the publicity of a home run record chase and a still potent bat? Will there be collusion among owners to not sign Barry, effectively locking him out of a record chase? I feel that someone should answer these questions for me. I don't think it would be wise for either side to cut ties; for better or for worse Barry Bonds is identified with the Giants and they with him. This debate will only get more intense as Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy is debated and examined.

It's a huge can of worms and it might be opened very soon.

Alfonso Soriano and the Case of Missing Baserunners

The Hot Stove is burning and the Rundown has all of the coverage you could possibly want. This market is spiraling out of control, and I am not entirely sure that all of this wild spending is in baseball's best interests. Juan Pierre is now a 9 million a year player. I think that says enough, but if you want an excellent breakdown of that tragic story read Sweet Lou's post below.

One of the most unbelievable free agent signings that has been made in baseball history was completed just a few days ago, and I am sure no one is surprised the Cubs were right in the middle of it. The Cubs have seemingly dedicated themselves to mediocrity since their devastating loss to the Marlins in the 2003 NLCS; they were fortunate that Derek Lee made the leap to legitimate superstar status in 2005, otherwise their offensive numbers would have been historically terrible. Why is this the case? The Cubbies at their best hit a lot of home runs but stay among the ranks of the mediocre when it comes to total runs scored. This is because NO ONE IS ONE BASE WHEN HOME RUNS ARE HIT!!! The Cubs are one of the teams in baseball which seem to reject the idea that people on the basepaths will help score runs, despite years of research and statistical evidence to prove this simple fact. One of the most important things a hitter can do at the plate is to NOT record an out; there are only 27 outs in a game and teams will score more runs as they become better collectively at not making outs. The Cubs have been terrible at this recently. Look at this lineup of players that have hit near the top of their lineup:

Neifi Perez .298 Career OBP
Juan Pierre .330 OBP leading off in 2006 (.326 in 2005)
Cesar Izturis .298 OBP in 2006

The Cubs as a team posted a horrific OBP of .319, to put it simply, Cubs hitters are excellent at making outs, and this does not help you score runs. Since this is baseball, the lack of run production is a bad thing if you want to win.

Well, Jim Hendry is mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore!! So he went out and got the premier free agent on the market this offseason--Alfonso Soriano! And all it cost him was $136 million over 8 years. For those of you keeping score, that is the fifth most lucrative contract in baseball history, based on annual income. Does anyone out there think Alfonso Soriano is the among the best five players in the game? The National League? The NL Central?? Let's break down Mr. Soriano and his potential impact.

Here are his career stats, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.
.325 OBP
.510 SLG
.835 OPS
.278 EQA

What does this mean? It means that Soriano is incredibly average! To put it favorably, Soriano is a good player, a valuable player.....but a player of the 9-12 million dollar a year range at best. For comparison, that's Juan Pierre money. Just kidding, Sweet Lou. Now some of you will look to his past season and think you are getting a great player....let's play that game for a second.

Soriano's 2006 stats
.351 OBP
.560 SLG
.911 OPS
.300 EQA

This confirms the point I am trying to make....the Cubs are getting a good player, a talented player, a player that should add wins to their season total next year, but they just paid him $136 million over 8 years!!! That's Sweet Lou money!! The Cubs will be paying this guy 17 million a year until he turns 39. THIRTY-NINE!!!! This has the potential to cripple the Cubs for half a decade, and you heard it here first. Remember the Cubs biggest offensive problem of making far too many outs? Soriano, over his career, has been exceptionally AVERAGE at not making outs, and his career year last year will not reflect his production for the Cubs for the next three seasons, much less the next eight. The Cubs have added a maximum of 8 wins to their season total for 2007 in Soriano and they have still failed to address their shattered pitching rotation.

This was a terrible signing in the long run, but if the Cubs can somehow turn this into a World Series title it will be worth it. The chances of that are slim at best as things stand right now, but in the weak NL....who knows?

Cubs 2007 record---79-83

Oh well...

It has just been announced that Ryan Howard is the 2006 NL MVP. This is quite disappointing to me considering that I am a huge Cardinals fan and that I just wrote a huge post explaining to these voters than Pujols was the more obvious choice. I guess they didn't check the Rundown before finalizing their decision. Oh well. Pujols does have one MVP and now has a World Series ring so he will be fine...it is just unfortunate baseball "experts" refuse to investigate what real baseball value is. We will continue to fight the good fight here at the Rundown and battle against stupidity in baseball writing!

NL MVP Pick!!

The winner of the 2006 National League Most Valuable Player Award will be announced later today, in less than an hour, in fact. The early returns suggest the race is very close and coming down to the wire. This should be no surprise to anyone who watched baseball at all this year. When the discussion about the National League's MVP is started, the list is not very long. Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols have seperated themselves from the rest of the pack, which is amazing considering the amount of quality seasons that were had in the NL. There has been alot of talk about the dominance of the AL over the NL, but the MVP races (and the World Series outcome) suggest the gap is not as wide as previously thought. Players like Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and others had tremendous seasons, but none of them will be close to the top in MVP voting. Soriano was a legitimate 40-40 player, without the stain of a steroid scandal like Jose Canseco, and he probably won't get a single first place vote for MVP!! When the list of MVP candidates is closely compared the NL field is revealed to be much stronger and deeper. Without further ado, let us dive into the debate over the most valuable player in the National League. Albert Pujols played for the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, and while postseason success has no bearing on the MVP voting, the fact that Pujols' Cardinals did make the postseason will factor in the vote positively for him; rightly or wrongly, the voters value a postseason berth in selecting an MVP. Since the Phillies and Cardinals had such similar records this year, I do not believe it is correct to use team success as a measure of value this year. Ryan Howard hit 58 home runs this year and and had 149 RBIs. His batting average/on base/slugging splits were very impressive, coming in at .313/.425/.659. for an OPS of 1.084. These stats are all insane!! His EQA, which measures offensive performance relative to the rest of the major leagues, was an astounding .340! For reference, an average EQA is around .260 and a good player will be above .300. In addition to all of this, Howard contributed directly to 8.6 Phillies wins this year, a figured totaled by his WARP. These numbers, again, are insane, and Howard certainly is worthy of all the credit he deserves as a fine player, especially in only his second season as an everyday player. Despite all of these great numbers, there is one player who can meet and top them all. Albert Pujols is simply the most dominant player in the Majors right now, and may very well go down in history as the most dominant player of this decade. Pujols had another year that just adds to growing legend as a wonderful hitter and overall player. The biggest thing against Pujols is that he trails Ryan Howard in the most obvious and highly quoted stats. Albert hit a career high 49 home runs and had 137 RBIs. These numbers are impressive but are surpassed by Howard's numbers in these categories. After that, it becomes all Albert. Pujols had splits this year of .331/.431/.671, for a ridiculous OPS of 1.102. The edge in these stats goes to Pujols by a bigger margin than you might think if you only watched ESPN. Albert also put up these stats while playing at the new Busch Stadium, a considerably more pitcher-friendly park than the Phillie's Citizen's Bank Ballpark. This difference is reflected in EQA and WARP, which take ball park effect into condsideration. Remember Howard's unholy EQA of .340? Albert Pujols had an even more disturbing EQA of .350!!! The difference in value becomes even more apparent when win shares are compared. Ryan Howard's WARP was 8.6 wins, meaning he contributed directly to that many wins for the Phillies. Albert Pujols had a WARP of 11.9! Pujols earned nearly 12 wins for the Cardinals over the course of the year, three more than Ryan Howard contributed to the Phillies. There's even more to it than pure hitting. A stat like WARP also takes defensive ability into account. By all accounts, Ryan Howard is a terrible first baseman, and Albert Pujols is one of the best in the game, winning his first Gold Glove earlier this year. Also, while neither one of these players would ever be called fast, Howard looks like his feet are stuck in lead, while Albert is one of the best baserunners in the game, especially among first basemen. Since these two candidates play the same position, it is easier to compare their production. Both players has marvelous years, but one really set himself apart. This might be one of the tightest races in years, but it shouldn't be. Albert Pujols proved his value to the Cardinals over the course of the year and the stats back up his status as the game's best overall player. He has the stats, the pedigree, and the overall ability in his favor. Your 2006 National League MVP should be......ALBERT PUJOLS. Hot Stove stuff to follow, as well as an introduction by our other contributors.

AL MVP Picks

The award season is in full swing and many debates have been settled. The NL Cy Young race had a number of quality candidates, including Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Trevor Hoffman, and Carlos Zambrano. Webb won the award, something that I did not appreciate since it will almost certainly mean he will go much earlier in next year's roto drafts. In any event, he was certainly deserving of the award. In the AL Cy race, there was no real debate and Johan Santana received his second Cy Young Award...both by unanimous vote. Pretty impressive.

That brings us to the league MVP voting. The AL winner will be announced first, and the field of quality players is very long. Derek Jeter is the leader in the clubhouse, followed by the likes of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and David Ortiz. Lost in all of this was Travis Hafner, a man who had a freakishly good year. Despite missing the last month of the season to a broken bone in his hand, he remained the leader in VORP and many other stats as well. The guy was putting up Pujols numbers with no recognition...he didn't even get selected for the All-Star game!! If the Indians were anywhere near the division lead, Hafner would have been the runaway winner. That wasn't the case, so Hafner is unfortunately out the the discussion, but he is my early pick for 2007 MVP.

The two Twins candidates were both very good this year, leading their team to the division title after a slow start. Both Morneau and Mauer had career years, but I'm afraid neither one have any chance to win this award because they will split the votes of the writers. Besides, their stats were compelling but not as good as the remaining candidates. Both Twinkies are gone.

That leaves Derek Jeter and David Ortiz, two rivals and combatants meet again in a battle for an individual award. The accomplishments of Big Papi have been well documented, from the walk off homers to the record breaking HR totals this year. Certainly Ortiz has a massive advantage in all the major power numbers, posting a .636 slugging percentage and an OPS of 1.049 while hitting a Red Sox franchise record 58 home runs. These numbers dwarf the .483/.900 split for Jeter with 14 home runs.

However, Derek Jeter's Yankees applied a major smack down to the Red Sox in the second half of 2006, including a humiliating five game sweep at Fenway. This alone almost put Ortiz out of the mix, but a frightening heart condition leading to missed playing time appeared to lock up the MVP for Jeter.

Jeter has won the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove for the shortstop position this year already, and it appears that 2006 is the opportunity to give the lifetime acheivement award to Jeter. Not so fast. Ortiz refused to be denied and came back with a vengeance at the end of the year. There is not doubt that Jeter's Yankees were better than the Red Sox, but that certainly was not David Ortiz's fault. David Ortiz posted a sick EQA of .328 this year to Jeter's .309. Derek Jeter had a higher amount of win shares.

This is a very close race that really will leave out a deserving player no matter who is chosen. The power stats are not their for Jeter, but he did play shortstop all year and ran the basepaths intelligently. David Ortiz put up ridiculous power numbers but still didn't receive as many win shares as Jeter did. He also missed time, although it was definetely not a matter of heart....no pun intended.

I am sure you are all dying to know my pick. Here it is. Since the race was so close, and one player was a DH and the other played one of the most physically demanding defensive positions in the time; the edge must be given to the everyday position player.

Your 2006 AL MVP is......Derek Jeter.

NL tomorrow!

My feelings on the Sport's Guy

ESPN.com's Page Two feature columnist is The Sport's Guy, Bill Simmons. He is one of, if not the biggest sport's columnists in America today and he represents the success that a writer can have when he views sports from a fan's perspective. He only writes about Boston sports, so that is a bit of a problem with me, I admit, but I am starting to have other problems with him as well. I think Bill Simmons was a good writer before his teams had success in their respective sports. The only sport he can adequately handle is basketball. Whenever he talks about football and baseball he makes a jerk of himself, especially baseball. Despite what he may think, his fanship of the Red Sox was always defined by failure and is compared to the Yankees. He hates the Yankees fans so much and now he has become them, as evidenced by his trashing of both the World Series Champion Cardinals and the National League in general. He is a jerk who knows very little about baseball other than the numbers of past Red Sox. What is also funny and interesting is how the Red Sox complain constantly about Yankees, yet they have always been Yankees-lite. Red Sox fans always bitch about the Yankees spending habits but have always done the same thing, except not as good. Boston has had a massive payroll for many years now, dwarfed only by the Yankees. Now that is being bridged because of the Red Sox giving up 51 million to just talk to a pitcher who has never thrown a MLB inning. So there, Simmons, you have become what you hate! That being said, he is extremely funny at times and makes me continue to read his columns. MVP predictions coming soon!

Stats mean something!!

Oh boy......this is what we have been waiting for. Apparently bad sports writing never has an offseason. Follow this link to see some insanity: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2654092

Now not every word in this article is nonsense, but there are some things that really bothered yours truly, and since this is a forum to complain....here we go.

There's only one problem with the gaudy numbers that Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Lee traditionally put up: They are guaranteed to lead to big contracts but do not necessarily translate into victories.

This is going to be the drumbeat that I will continue to sound until such idiot thinking is banished from baseball forever. We should call this the A-ROD DOCTRINE: There is no such thing as a gaudy stat line that is worthless to a baseball team. The very idea is absurd. But maybe I am reacting too harshly. Let's see what Phil has to say for himself.

Along with Alfonso Soriano, these are the biggest bats on the market, and it figures someone will pay them accordingly (Lee appears headed to the Houston Astros; Ramirez possibly to the Los Angeles Angels). But for all their thunder, Lee and Ramirez have combined for only 55 at-bats in the playoffs (and a .218 average), generally playing on also-ran teams.

What does a player's amount of postseason at-bats have anything to do with how valuable they are? Carlos Delgado did not have a single postseason AB until this postseason...was he a crappy player until this October? This makes zero sense, Phillip. Continue.

Their teams were a combined 147-176 last year. Lee did not deliver when he was traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Texas Rangers at the July deadline, and Ramirez disappeared when the Chicago Cubs needed him to step up while Derrek Lee was sidelined.

Again, a team's record is never a reflection on a single player. In fact, by looking at the win shares for both Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez, we see these fine players contributed to their teams victory totals. Their teams were BETTER OFF FOR HAVING THEM, PHIL!!! Are they absolute iron clad superstars? No. But they are both fine players who will use their stats to help their team win. What a concept.

One scout says the saying about lies, damn lies and statistics applies to free agency. "You can take any stat, I believe, and damn near make any point you choose with it," he said.

That is so true, both Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez's OPS and VORP contributed to the Republican loss in the Congress this week. Maybe people use stats because it is a helpful and OBJECTIVE way to evaluate a player's contribution to winning. Anyone?

The Season Roundup

Alright class, the Professor is in and it is time to start breaking down the simmering Hot Stove and all of the awards given out at the end of the year. The World Champion St. Louis Cardinals have many issues confronting them as they look forward to defending their title in 2007; the rest of the league is no different. We here at the Rundown are going to introduce ourselves and then begin giving our opinions on free agents, end of the year awards, and so much more. Stay tuned.

This should be interesting

I would like to welcome all of you to a baseball blog that is the result of a few guys watching and reading analysis and deciding that we also have something to add to the discussion. Baseball is the American game; we can be united and divided by baseball as easily as politics, religion, or a wide variety of other issues. Why is this?

It's because baseball matters.

Baseball is a way of judging history and comparing eras; it is a way to monitor the progress of our culture, our values, and even our morality. Baseball gives us heroes and legends, players who become so larger than life that grown men will pay large sums to money to watch them perform their craft.

We will discuss baseball transaction over this hot stove season, we will track free agents and their potential impact on their new team, and we will make fun of columnists and TV personalities that we disagree with. We will fight and bicker and argue with each other until we are blue in the face, and I am sure there will be some seriously ridiculous things said by all of us.

The Baseball Rundown experiment starts......now.