Bill Conlin; Baseball Expert

We have more bad sportswriting to report, kids. Our newest addition to the family is Bill Conlin from the Philadelphia Daily News. Presumably, this guy will write about the Phillies; you can check out this story by following this link----> http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/16271426.htm The title of this article is, "Phils seem finished making major additions" The key team mentioned is the Phillies of course. Let's crack this open! MAJOR LEAGUE baseball's general managers have pretty much shut the doors on the armored trucks, secured the bank vaults and headed home for the holidays. Good opening, its appropriate and even gives good imagery. So what about the Phillies? The scene they left behind looks like a Klondike saloon after the Gold Rush prospectors came in after the spring thaw. There hasn't been such a wild orgy of undisciplined spending since the Xbox went on sale. Ummmm, what? I mean he is right, the spending in baseball has been absurd this offseason, but this is the biggest mish mash of metaphors and comparisons I have ever seen! The X-Box? Maybe this guy has heard of the Playstation 3 that just came out? His references aren't even current! Just tell us about the Phillies! After turning Orlando into Sitka during the winter meetings, the hung-over GMs dragged their depleted checkbooks back home. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, who must be auditioning for "Deal or No Deal,'' gave Mr. Softee, J.D. Drew, $70 million for 5 years and a priority reservation for the Fenway Park whirlpool. Hung over? Deal or No Deal? Mr. Softee? And what the heck is Sitka? I think this guy is trying to do a Bill Simmons impersonation and he is failing miserably. Isn't this article about the additions the PHILLIES are making? The reference to Philadelphia sports must be coming soon. Then the boyish Yale grad got a nod and a wink from cyber-consultant Bill James... Sounds gay. ...and added a 6-year, $52 million contract to the $51.1 million they already had lavished on the Japan League Seibu Lions just for the right to negotiate for the rights to righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka. Yes, that is crazy spending...but those are the Red Sox....your team is the Philadelphia Phillies, Bill. Maybe you should mention them as well? We are about six long and convoluted sentences into this 41 sentence article and we still don't have a Phillies reference. I am beginning to lose hope. Bill continues to rant about the Red Sox pick ups for a little while longer, then he moves on. The spending was particularly surreal in Chicago. Tribune Company, which owns a bunch of distressed newspapers and the Chicago Cubs, said screw you to the editorial employees about to be jettisoned. Way to protect your own, Bill. To hell with the Tribune Company! They are firing my "journalist" peers! WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH THE PHILLIES??? They spent an obscene amount of money in long-term commitments to Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and a variety of average pitchers they hope will change luck that has been bad since Tinker to Evers to Chance. Does anyone know what the heck he is talking about? Anyone? Please My devout hope is that the blood money taken from the hands of hundreds of soon-to-be laid-off Tribune Company employees will not spend well.

Your Baseball Education for the Day!

Professor speaking. As we go forward here, I thought it would be helpful to provide a sort of useful guide for the baseball terms that we throw around here so frequently. Hopefully this will allow all of us to speak the same statistical language and avoid confusion. I would put this in some kind of order....but I don't know the alphabet. Without further ado, here is your glossary!!! Batting Average (BA) -- This one is pretty simple and most people are familiar with it. It is calculated by taking a player's hit total and dividing by the number of at-bats the player had. A .300 average is considered good, but the best hitters can far exceed that total, and a .250 average is considered bad, and many hitters can dip below that total. I don't believe batting average is a great measure of the worth of a hitter, and neither do you if you think about. You have always thought this way, even if you have never expressed it. Player A: BA- .255 45 HRs 30 2Bs 100 RBIs 95 Walks Player B: BA- .320 7 HRs 25 2Bs 65 RBIs 30 Walks Which player would you rather have? Tim McCarver might say Player B if that guy is small and "plays the game the right way," which is why Timmy should be a fastfood drive-through guy instead of the lead color analyst of baseball on Fox every Saturday. I think I would take Player A, everytime. So can we all agree that batting average is not the best metric to value hitters and in fact is one of the worst? Wouldn't you rather look at other stats that more accurately guage a hitter's effectiveness? What? You want me to move on? Fine. On-Base Percentage or Average (OBP, OBA)-- If you haven't read Moneyball, an excellent book by Michael Lewis about the success of the Oakland A's despite having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, you should read it immediately. It breaks down the value of OBP very effectively. OBP is the difference between Kevin Youkilis and Jeff Franceour. If you are a hitter, your primary responsibility and goal is TO NOT MAKE OUTS. OBP is the stat that measures how effectively a hitter avoids making outs. It is calculated by taking the amount of times a player reaches base without recording any outs divided by player's number of plate appearances. (Plate appearances are at-bats + walks + sacrifices in this case) Your 2006 leader in OBP was Mr. Barry Bonds with an impressive mark of .454. Basically, when Barry got to the plate he did not record an out about 45% of the time. That is very good. Slugging Percentage (SLG) This stat tries to express a hitter's ability to hit for power. This takes a player's total bases and divides by his amount of at bats. This puts extra value on extra base hits and especially home runs. Your 2006 leader in slugging percentage was Albert Pujols with a mark of .671. Albert Pujols is a stud. BA / OBP / SLG -- This is a fairly common way of displaying the three previous stats, when you see a split like this, you a probably looking at a hitter's batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage) -- Just what it sounds like, this stat combines a player's OBP and slugging percentage. Stat geeks will tell you that OPS is not a good stat because it equalizes OBP and SLG even though OBP is more important. (Did you know BIll James, a leading baseball stat man, thinks OBP is about 4 times more important than SLG?) I will use it because OPS has gotten a foothold in popular baseball terminology so it is more accepted than some crazy stuff I am gonna shoot your way later in this post. Albert Pujols was your 2006 OPS champion with a mark of 1.102. For his efforts, Albert was not selected as the 2006 MVP. VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) -- This is a bit different from the other stats because it is a counting statistic and not a percentage. VORP is an offensive only stat, and it attempts to calculate the number of runs a player is contributing above what a replacement-level player at the same position would if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. Basically, if you were injured or incapacitated or shot to the moon, how many runs would your team lose if they put a fringe major leaguer or AAA quality player in your place the whole season? That's VORP, baby. Your 2006 VORP leader was.....Albert Pujols, with a VORP of 85.4! Albert was worth 85 more runs than the replacement level player. By the way, every 10 additional runs is roughly equal to one win, so Albert accounted for nearly 9 extra wins over the course of the year. He still has not received the 2006 MVP award yet. And yes, I am bitter. David Eckstein -- He is a semi-average SS for the St. Louis Cardinals; the only person in baseball who is definitely NOT using human growth hormone. He is approximately 4 and a half feet tall and has to lie down in the dugout between innings to keep from passing out. He performs windmills to warm up before games, I am always worried that he will either take off or sever his arms completely. He also runs hard to first base on every play, like almost every other major league baseball player. Commentators will take this display of hustle, grit and heart and use it to somehow conclude David has a sort of baseball skill that is totally beyond his tangible assets. He is the midget and illegitmate albino twin of Derek Jeter.

The Numbers are in....Kinda

Early reports suggest that the D-Money deal will be for six years and 52 million with some incentives that would put the deal at a possible value of around $60 million. These incentives would almost certainly be innings-pitched related, and if so, our boy D-Money should have no problem reaching those goals. Take a look at this......http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/news/story?id=2696021 I don't want to brag or anything...but your resident numbers cruncher, the Professor, was closer than all of these tools, some of whom didn't even pick the signing to happen at all (I'm looking in your direction, Steve Phillips!) Proof positive your trust in TBR (The Baseball Rundown) is well-placed. Peace out! These numbers are from SI's John Heyman, and therefore are in question...so let's not get our hopes up!

The Boston Yankees new ACE

Apparently, Daisuke Matsuzaka has boarded a plane with top Red Sox officials returning to Boston. We can only assume this means there has been some sort of a preliminary agreement between the team and the Japanese pitcher....my best guess is six years and between $55-$60 million dollars. Not bad for a guy WHO HAS YET TO THROW A SINGLE MLB PITCH. If my guesses are anywhere near reality, this would bring Matasuzaka's contract value to around $100 million over six years, including the posting fee. Because of this, I believe this kid deserves the nickname of D-Money, and so I will be referring to him in that way from now on. This is exceptionally ridiculous, I just cannot believe the orgy of spending that has taken place this year. I was never a big fan of the salary cap in baseball, but if this trend continues it may become a necessity. Smaller market teams have had success recently, and their has been a different World Series Champion every year since 2000, but I am not sure that will be possible if contracts continue to escalate they way they have this offseason. Essentially the teams on the coasts will begin to squeeze players from the mid-market teams in the center of the country, and teams like Minnesota, Cincinnatti, Pittsburgh, and yes, even St. Louis, will start to have an unfair burden placed on them as they try to compete in a market gone mad. This entire posting system really highlighted these needs for fiscal restraints...I mean, D-Money was only really available to a handful of teams who had the cash flow possiblilities to make a $30 million plus bid. IT NEEDS TO STOP!! I guess its too much to ask for Bud Selig to move ahead of the curve.

The Real Sweet Lou?

I thought it would be interesting to make my first post at the Rundown really hit home for some...specifically our own Sweet Lou. But first i would like to introduce myself as the brother to the one and only Professor. Technically I am younger, and therefore Sweet Lou and the Professor believe they are the know it alls. But I would like to mention that I am the only one of the trio that actually PLAYS baseball. In fact, I am by far the most athletic of the group. I shouldn't be so hard on the Professor because back in the day he was a solid pitcher, but as for Sweet Lou he literally cannot swing a bat without hurting his shoulder. It's embarassing to be honest, but i do feel bad. So basically the Professor is the stat man (hence the name) and I can lend my small expertise due to actual experience. I believe Sweet Lou was added simply for his moisturated skin. Moving right along because I'm not one to judge other's grooming habits.

So now I'll actually get to the point of this post which would be to explain the huge mistake that the Cubs have made in their offseason signings! And wouldn't you know it, this has absolutly nothing to do with my boy Soriano. Instead, I'm going to jump back to October when the Great Lou Piniella was hired as the Cubs head coach. The question is...Do the Cubs enjoy losing...do they even try anymore? I know this hurts our own Sweet Lou because he actually named himself after the great coach himself. (Atleast i assume) So anyway let me explain in a quite orderly fashion why this is a perhaps the most destructive signing I've ever seen.

1) Larry Rothschild, who has spent the last five years as the Cubs' pitching coach, will return to the same role on Piniellas' staff. This is the same guy whose staff lead the league in walks and have an amazing ability to break mid-season? Simply put, Mr. Lou Piniella wants him, he has been put in charge for some reason. Rothschild has offically been signed to a 2 year contract to be Piniellas' pitching coach. So i guess no one should expect anything from Cubs pitching this year...I hope Soriano and Lee combine for around 150 homers or the Cubs are looking at another sub par season.

2) Let me stick with Lou's uncanny ability to hire coaches who are master failures. You will literally never guess who he picked as his bench coach. Drum Roll Please....Alan Trammell, if he doesn't rind any bells let my introduce him. This is the the manager of the 119 loss 2003 Detroit Tigers. Amazingly enough the Tigers team of 2003 doesn't look so different from the AL champions of 2006. What was the major difference besides some added pitching? It would have to be Trammell's ablility come up with a myriad of ways to lose!

3) Not only does he fail to create a solid staff, but he also comes of very short while coaching. He abuses pitchers, he doesn’t develop young players, he plays veterans to a fault. The only difference between him and Dusty is Lou pisses off his players and Dusty desperatly needs to be liked by his players. Besides pissing off the players, his tirades will quickly upset the umpires as he always does. If you think that Cubs got bad breaks before, just wait until Piniella ticks off the umpires.

I conclusion, I just wonder if the Cubs front office trys. Wait, I think they do try but only to run their organization further into the ground. Really, I nor anyone else should be so hard on the Cubs. Its gotta suck to have so much pressure on you to win especially when their is 0 chance that will happen. Instead, we should focus on Chicago's strengths like making pizza and Piniella's forte's such as throwing bases into the outfield.
I'm not saying...I'm just saying

The Boston Yankees

I have heard alot of complaining from Boston fans about the Yankees; Red Sox fans continue to define their fanship in relationship to New York despite everything that popular New England area columnists and commentators have said in the mass of books, print, and other media following the 2004 Red Sox title. One of the biggest complaints has revolved around the Yankee's habit of wildly spending money on free agents, gorging their rosters with overpaid superstars to ensure the constant status of contender for a World Series title. Freud would say a part of your unconcious mind actually desires to become like the entity that you say you despise.

Congratulations, Boston. You have become what you hate. The Boston Yankees have put on a clinic on how to corner a free agency market, just like their New York counterparts. Boston has spent $170 million on long term free agency contracts so far this offseason, and that doesn't even factor in probably another 50 million for the actual contract to Mata-whoever from Japan. So be on notice, Boston fans....we will not tolerate the inevitable complaining that will take place when New York gets the upper hand on you.....again. This serves as a warning to all of you, Boston Yankees fans, you have become a version of your most hated nemesis. Actually, you are far worse than the Yankees because you aren't even good at throwing your money around. Your GM Epstein is trying to overcompensate for his mistakes to sign Damon and not find adequate offensive replacements in the offseason. They missed the postseason last year and now feel they must flex their obviously large financial muscles. You can do this all you want, guys, but it will not work out in the long run. You luxury tax hit will get more and more significant and that money will combine with the Yankees money and get dispersed to all the other MLB clubs. Essentially, you will be paying your rivals enough money to field players competing against you. The Yankees are demonstrating that this system is not sustainable and are trying to reverse their drunken spending habits.

So do not complain. Don't whine and moan. I don't want to hear one word about Steinbrenner and his evil wallet from hell. I don't want to hear about how Yankee Stadium is a corporate symbol. And for the love of God, don't claim the Yankees are beating you because of cash like you did last year, Theo. Man up and play the games. I suspect you won't do this, and we will be here to document your stupidity and hypocrisy.

You have been warned.